Marketwise

  1. No Chance for Coalitions in Germany? Two German states have voted, but every possible government coalition was already ruled out beforehand. Now what?
  2. Honest Game Reviews Journalism is tricky in many industries but the games industry might be particularly biased.
  3. Real Estate Crisis in China I'll compile some data about the events in China but ultimately it becomes a question about the meaning of "crisis".
  4. Should Scrum teams use Prediction Markets? As a software developer, I want to forecast my sprint, so that my promises hold.
  5. Manifund: Prediction Markets but Charity Got a free $500 to invest in impact certificates, so I have to figure out how this works now.
  6. Certainly, here is a prediction market Creating prediction markets is not easy. Here too, AI can help.
  7. How Much to Bet for Max Profits? A fox learns the hard way before the Kelly criterion tells us the exact answer.
  8. Why is nobody using prediction markets if they are so great? "It interferes with our ability to shape the narrative," he said. That isn't the only reason though.
  9. Germany’s Cannabis Law: Details Matter How a small difference in phrasing can be very important and it may have confounded some forecasters.
  10. Did CoViD-19 come from a lab? The truth. A man bets $100,000 that CoViD-19 doesn't come from the lab. Here is why this is a good example of how to find the truth.
  11. Forecasting the Metaculus Conditional Cup Read my rationale about various questions, mostly geopolitics.
  12. Why prediction markets are rarely useful I used prediction markets for years. They are entertaining but I have to admit nearly none were actually useful to me. I have two ideas why.
  13. Imagine it's deflation and nobody cares The German economy is sounding the alarm, but while inflation is disappearing the European Central Bank is reluctant. If only we could use the wisdom of the crowd.
  14. Traders confused: Prediction markets on Biden's Odds Diverge If prediction markets are so awesome, how can platforms disagree significantly?
  15. Managing Megaprojects with Prediction Markets Huge mega-projects are happening. We could manage the risks there much better if only we could do it in public.
  16. Towards the EU Election in June In June the European Union elects a new parliament. Even Europeans are often confused how the EU works, so a refresher for all the upcoming forecasting might be helpful.
  17. Decisions, marketwise Forecasting is fun (for nerds like me). It can also be useful if you use it to guide your decision making. If it isn't obvious how, here I spell it out in two variants.
  18. All Predictions are Wrong But some are useful and the real question is "how wrong?"
  19. You Bet You'll Rock Your 2024 Resolutions Can you walk 100,000 steps in one day? This year there was a prediction market and the target was reached.
  20. How to Write Forecasting Questions After creating nearly 200 prediction markets, here is what I learned about writing them.
  21. Ukraine: The Dwindling Odds in the Face of Waning Western Aid Ukraine finds itself grappling with the alarming retreat of Western support that once stood as a beacon of hope in its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression.
  22. Swift Triumph: Was it predictable? Prediction markets did "ok" this time predicting TIME's Person of the Year choice, but there was also some clear bias. There are lessons to be learned, so we can do better next time.
  23. Looking forward to 2024, you will have to make a decision The Economist apparently thinks next year is essentially about elections, economies, and wars. Only one of their 16 questions is about something else.
  24. Novel Approach to Central Bank Decision-Making Can prediction markets provide the missing link in decision-making? Let us take a deeper look into ECB's impact on GDP and inflation and how markets could shape economic policies.
  25. OpenAI just fired its CEO Sam Altman? The forecasting community is closely related to the AI community, so yesterday's news caused a turmoil. Let's see what the early forecasts are.
  26. Dear democrats and republicans, here is how to win the election It looks like a Biden vs Trump match in November. Funny enough, neither of those is the best choice for their party.
  27. The Prediction of Zelda Can you imagine Tom Holland (Spiderman) as actor for Link in the Legend of Zelda? 😱
  28. High Stakes Bet on CoViD's Origins Winter is coming and CoViD cases are rising again. The origin of the virus is still uncertain. Two just bet $100,000 as they disagree if it comes from nature or a lab.
  29. Speaker Election: Interviewing the Top Traders The republicans got a lot of attention at the election of the Speaker of the House. Here is what the most profitable traders did.
  30. Liquidity vs Promotion: Both are useful on Manifold Ever made a prediction market and they ignored it? Manifold has two ways to buy attention and they sponsored a little experiment to compare them.
  31. The Battle Against Fake News: How Prediction Markets Are Changing the Game If you are too lazy to fact check yourself, create a prediction market to outsource it.
  32. Move the Market Safely in 3 Simple Steps Buying something changes the price. Usually it is imperceptible but not with prediction markets.
  33. Poland Is Not Yet Lost The ultimate battle between good and evil will be decided in Warsaw this weekend. At least, according to the rhetoric in Poland's election.
  34. Marketwise, the english edition Same newsletter, different language.