The Legend of Zelda was just announced for a live-action movie. With producer Avi Arad of Marvel fame it got attention. Here is a good long summary article.
Why is it interesting for prediction markets? Zelda is a great long-running game series. Many gamers now care a lot which actors will play their childhood heroes. Thanks to AI images, we nearly immediately got some visual suggestions.
Who will it be? Prediction markets have different ideas.
As the above market resolves every prediction on its own, there is no automatic balancing among the same roles. So alternatively, there are balanced (single-choice) markets for the main roles of Link, Zelda, Ganondorf, and Navi.
My thoughts:
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Selecting actors is a very chaotic process, so the base rate for each is low.
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Link is mute in the games which is weird for a movie main role. Link is androgynous, so it could be a woman or trans actor/actress.
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Ganondorf is the best bet for main villain but I doubt that Hollywood dares to select a person of color for a villain role here. Sorry, Idris Elba.
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Ganondorf is a big imposing guy in the games. I suspect they will not pick bodybuilder though. If Link does little talking, the villain has to do it.
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With Link and Ganondorf being white, a black Zelda has some appeal for Hollywood-balancing. So Zendaya (Dune) or Halle Bailey (Arielle)?
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Navi is more help system than character but an adventure movie needs a funny sidekick. I think it will be a character in the movie. Could be purely animated though.
Picking actors and actresses is quite entertaining. There are some more questions on Manifold.
One more link: Interview with Jason Matheny, about forecast research projects and various other things.
Probably until next week, my Hyrulian readers! 😊