Previously, I wrote how prediction markets are good fact checkers with respect to war stories in Israel. Here is another discussion topic: Did CoViD-19 originate from a laboratory or from nature? Manifold says 72% lab.
A fact checker group called Rootclaim, founded by an Israeli millionaire, is more confident that it was an accidental lab leak:
The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident. (89%probability)
They are confident enough to bet \$100,000 in a debate. Will someone take it?
As you can see in that screenshot, I’m 95% confident that someone will agree. The related Manifold question already resolved YES as Peter Miller claims to have taken the challenge. There seems to be no public announcement by Rootclaim yet and that is why Metaculus has not resolved yet.
Peter Miller published his argument here.
How will the debate end?
My understanding of the two arguments:
-
Rootclaim puts a lot of weight on the characteristics of the virus which look “engineered” like a lab virus.
-
Miller puts a lot of weight on the Huanan wet market location which makes sense for a natural origin but not for a lab virus.
The debate has two judges. Each can decide lab or natural or undecided. That implies six possible outcomes.
We can simplify it to a winner-question. In my understanding Miller wins for “both natural origin” and “one natural origin, one undecided”. That currently adds to 19%+14%=33%. So this is consistent with the simple question below.
Whatever the outcome will be, it should move the first question away from "72%”.
Just in case you missed it, ACX has a new Mantic Monday post.
Probably until next week, my infected readers! 😊