Recent trends in market predictions paint a sobering picture for Ukraine, as the likelihood of ceding more territory to Russia gains traction. Ukraine’s chances are falling since October. Assuming the war is over in seven years, this market predicts the outcome and has good liquidity.
Putin can be a lot more confident to stay in power for at least one more year.
Wars are fickle. When they start or end or who wins is often subjective. One experiment to resolve this conundrum is the stable content on a Wikipedia page. That does not really solve it. It only shifts the problem to another party. Anyways, we will see how it plays out.
What can be done about it? Ukraine and Russia, both depend on support from Western and Eastern countries for their war efforts. Just one example are tanks.
With the current trajectory, Russia will conquer another chunk of land. It seems that the West will not take the necessary steps to prevent that.
Rational Animations is a gorgeous Youtube channel and here is their newest video:
Manifold just started their Community fund, where you can apply for money, sponsor some money, are just see what’s up.
Another thing that is up, is my new bot which toots prediction market moves. So far it tracks Manifold, Metaculus, and Polymarket.
In the Fediverse, you can follow @mrktws_news@mastodon.social but it also works as RSS feed.
Probably until next week, my federated readers! 😊