Manifold plays Diplomacy

The first Diplomacy game which gets covered by Manifold predictions. It is a classic game on webdiplomacy.net, so it starts 2023-08-28 in spring 1901.

1901

Rather normal openings. Most interesting is probably if Austria gets a build?

First interesting moves appear. Will we see bribing or manipulation?

Sadly, Austria left the game.

1902

Intentions become clearer now. Russia goes for Germany, England for Russia, and France goes south. On the Balkan, Turkey and Italy pounce on Austria.

At this point, the game looks quite balanced. Everyone has 5 or 6 centers (well, except Austria). Will Italy be next?

1903

Russia is attacked by three countries at once. Austria is still alive.

England changes their focus from Russia to Germany. Turkey feeds further on russian centers. France and Italy lock up the Mediterranean Sea.

1904

Italy missed a turn, but one is excused.

Turkey advances steadily and England started a war with its former allies. Russia, Germany, and Italy are about to be crushed.

The perfidious Albion finally launched an invasion in Brest. Russia finally got Sweden.

1905

England, France, and Turkey advance. Austria is finally getting wiped out.

Turkey acts defensively in the south while taking another bite from Russia. Italy's player left.

1906

Everybody acting along their playbooks for now. Quote from the General chat:

The german empire proudly announces that our brave soldiers have liberated our homeland in Kiel from the savage Brits. Have faith and we will be victorious!

Italy is down to one center. Russia and Germany down to two. Quote from the General chat:

The British Empire proudly announces that their brave sailors have liberated Kiel from the savage Huns!

1907

The war goes back and forth in Germany. Italy proves surprisingly resilient in Naples.

1908

Germany is cast out from its last center.

Germany is eliminated. Italy still holding its single center between fronts. England left Sweden without taking it from Russia.

The game is at a relatively stable situation. Turkey in a stalemate against France-England-Russia. However, markets indicate that the game is not over yet, so some alliance is about to shift violently, isn't it?

1909

Italy defeated as well. Four players left.

Only Turkey gained a center. Russia now has two centers but only unit and is unable to build one.

1910

Turkey's defense broke.

1911

Russia takes back Moscow...

... but fails to hold it.

1912

1913

Turkey fumbled their defense and let France into the Ionian Sea.

Now Turkey retreated from Venice for unknown reasons.

1914

1915

France advancing a little in the south and some fleet maneuvers in the north. Boring.

Russia is back up to 3 centers.

1916

1917

France takes Trieste...

... and trades it for Vienna.

1918

Turkey left the game.

1919

1920

Thanks to the remaining army, Russia still survived with 0 centers.

Congratulations to England aka Antti Rasinen!

The game concluded 2023-10-13 after 46 days.

Forecasting

Predictions for the game were collected under this Manifold tag. Here the leaderboard at the end.

Meta Info

Turns out private games on webdiplomacy.net can only be seen by the players. Everybody else is redirected to the frontpage when accessing the game directly. We should have used vdiplomacy.com, so writing this website would not have been necessary. Still, the images above are not protected, so they are straight from the source.